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08/09/2012

Recent Research: Highlights from August 2012


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"Diversification Return and Leveraged Portfolio"
The Journal of Portfolio Management (Summer 2012)
Edward Qian

It is widely accepted that portfolio rebalancing adds diversification return to fixed-weight portfolios, but this is only true for long-only unleveraged portfolios. Qian provides analytical results regarding portfolio rebalancing and the associated diversification returns for different kinds of portfolios including long-only, long-short, and leveraged. He shows that portfolio rebalancing is linked to underlying portfolio dynamics. For long-only unleveraged portfolios, rebalancing amounts to a mean-reverting strategy, and the diversification return is always non-negative. But for short (or inverse) and leveraged portfolios, portfolio rebalancing on the top-down level amounts to a trend-following strategy that detracts from diversification return. Qian analyzes diversification returns of risk parity portfolios and shows that the diversification return of a leveraged long-only portfolio can generally be decomposed into two parts, both of which are related to a scaled unleveraged portfolio. The first part is the positive diversification return from rebalancing among individual assets at the bottom-up level, which is amplified by leverage. The second part is the negative diversification return caused by the leverage of the overall portfolio. His numerical examples show that diversification return is, in general, positive for leveraged risk parity portfolios when the leverage ratio is not too high. In addition, he shows that low correlations between different assets are crucial in achieving positive diversification return and reducing portfolio turnover for risk parity portfolios.

"The Rubber Starts to Meet the Road: Achievable Results in US Housing Finance Reform"
The Journal of Structured Finance (Summer 2012)
Chris DiAngelo

This article begins by noting that the US Congress and the Administration both remain stymied in the area of housing finance reform, notwithstanding numerous “white papers,” “requests for information,” “roundtables,” and the like. After almost four years, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain in conservatorship, with no clear exit plan. Looking past the top level (Congress and the White House), however, one will see that the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) themselves and their regulator/conservator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, have begun to make real progress in several areas. In early 2012, the FHFA released a strategic plan for the GSEs and followed that up with a “scorecard” that sets forth in some detail a “to do” list of items that the FHFA intends to get done, along with target dates for those items. The article focuses on four items in particular: the REO disposition program, the “new securitization platform” initiative, the “single security” concept, and the possibility of privatizing the multifamily business. The conclusion is that more progress is being made than the public generally believes.

"Kicking the Habit: How Experience Determines Financial Risk Preferences"
The Journal of Wealth Management (Fall 2012)
Joachim Klement and Robin E. Miranda

Conventional explanations for the diversity of risk preferences among individual investors offer only limited insight. Recent research in neuroscience, genetics, and behavioral decision making underscore the importance of experience in financial risk taking. The authors review these findings and argue that not only does individual experience influence risk taking, so do the collective experiences of groups. Additionally, there seems to be a significant genetic component to financial risk taking, suggesting that “evolutionary experience” also needs to be considered when analyzing the risk preferences of individual investors. The authors introduce some simple tools to identify the influence of experience on financial risk preferences. These tools can help financial advisors to accurately assess investors’ risk preferences to help them achieve their goals at an acceptable level of risk.


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